ERCOT SARA Summer 2023

Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy for the ERCOT Region (SARA) Summer 2023

Assuming that the ERCOT Region experiences typical summer grid conditions, ERCOT anticipates that there will be sufficient installed generating capacity available to serve the system-wide forecasted peak load for the upcoming summer season, June - September 2023.

The base summer peak load is 82,739 MW. This load amount is based on average weather conditions at the time of the summer peaks for years 2007 through 2021, and does not incorporate ERCOT's summer 2023 weather outlook. Weather forecast information, including the 2023 summer weather outlook, is available here.

The peak load also incorporates load adjustments to account for incremental solar rooftop system additions as well as the interconnection of Large Loads (such as crypto-mining facilities) to Transmission Service Provider networks and individual generating units. The background tab includes a detailed description of the methodology used for accounting for these Large Loads.

Over 97,000 MW of summer-rated resource capacity is expected to be available for the summer peak load. This includes 688 MW of planned thermal resources and 372 MW of planned solar resources forecasted to be available by July 2023. The total resource amount also includes 3,544 MW of installed battery storage capacity, with 447 MW of the installed total assumed to be available for dispatch prior to the highest summer net load hours. (Net load is total load minus wind and solar generation.) This capacity estimate serves as a proxy for the amount expected during a tight reserve hour for the upcoming summer and is an interim availability assumption to be used until a formal capacity contribution method is adopted for future SARA reports.

Also noteworthy is a 568 MW coal unit that changed its operations from year-round to summer only. The total amount of capacity associated with units operating only during the summer now stands at 704 MW, which is the highest amount since summer 2016.

ERCOT and thermal generation owners are closely monitoring the potential impacts of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s March 15th approval of its “Good Neighbor Plan” for reducing cross-state emissions of ozone-forming nitrogen oxides (NOx). Several generation owners in the ERCOT region indicated the potential that certain generators may face operational constraints in complying with the Program's provisions as soon as July 2023. Texas, Louisiana and other parties filed a motion with the Fifth Circuit court to stay the EPA’s regulatory action due to potential reliability impacts. On May 1, 2023, the Court granted the motion to stay the EPA action.

The summer SARA includes a typical thermal generating unit outage assumption of 5,034 MW. This outage assumption is based on historical outage data for the last three summer seasons (2020, 2021, 2022).

The summer SARA includes two Risk Scenario tabs: Base & Moderate Risk Scenarios, and Extreme Risk Scenarios. The most severe Risk Scenario assumes a high peak load, extreme unplanned thermal plant outages based on historic observations, and extreme low wind power production.

Download the full SARA report here.